The cost-effective policy is a conscious choice because the Russian decision-makers know well that they do not have the means to maintain a large-scale war.

It has made a careful cost-benefit analysis and established clear and limited goals for the use of hard power. In each case, the Russian government has had a clear understanding of the risks on the ground. The examples of Georgia, Syria, Libya, and (so far) Ukraine, show that it pursues a cost-efficient policy. A full-scale war in Ukraine does not really fit into how the Kremlin has used hard power in its geopolitical games. Some observers have interpreted these Russian statements as untruthful and even accused the Russian authorities of preparing a false-flag operation.Ī closer examination of Russia’s geopolitical behaviour in the past two decades, however, demonstrates that its officials might not necessarily be trying to deceive the international community.

Moscow has denied that it is making such plans, although it has not withdrawn its troops.

A number of Western leaders have repeatedly warned of this possibility. Over the past year, as Russia amassed troops along its border with Ukraine, there have been growing fears of an imminent invasion.

Strategic war tablesgames